Construction of Evaluation Index System of Audio-visual Communication Effects Measurement System in the Era of Media Convergence: Big Data Mining Based on VAR Model

Keywords：audio-visual communication, media effects, big data, measurement system, VAR model

ZHOU Yong, ZHAOXuan

Abstract：Media convergence changes media environment profoundly, which makes the transmission of audio-visual information change from single channel -- traditional television -- to the multiscreen interactive mode, including television, computer and mobile terminals. The big data, which mostly comes from internet, accumulating in this process of change, will completely change the traditional TV rating survey method which accepted by all parties for а long time. This study intends to establish an audio-visual communication effects measurement system by integrating measurement systems such as audience ratings, time-shift, internet clickstreams, and social media opinion mining. Using the data from ten television series, this study uses Vector Autoregressive model OVARO to analyze the relationships between various existing measurement systems, which is further used to determine the weights of different measurement indexes. The results suggest that the Baidu search index and the trending topics on Weibo have significant effects on the ratings in the short term, and the quantity of media coverage and the positive word -of-mouth on social media contribute to the long term success measured in the ratings.

Authors：

Zhou Yong, Professor of School of Jounalism and Communication, Renmin University ofChina.

Zhao Xuan, Ph.D student of School of Jounalism and Communication, Renmin Universityof China.